Fri, Oct 22, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 312 | 28 | 531 |
| TOR | 011 | 212 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 3:27TORJason SpezzaAssists: Pierre Engvall, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 3:44SJSTimo MeierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:24TOROndrej KaseUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 11:55SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 0:25SJSJonathan DahlenGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 13:39TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 19:20SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:21SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50TORNick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P3 7:49SJSLane Pederson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:24TORJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Dahlen9:20
xG 1.49–0.58 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc11:07
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Eklund7:34
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Pederson – Weatherby6:26
xG 0.21–0.68 (24%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek10:24
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Burns – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro17:58
xG 1.03–1.13 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Kase – Kampf8:39
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall3:58
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Bunting8:31
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews4:43
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:14
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Dermott – Sandin11:24
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly14:48
xG 0.98–0.72 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).