Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 04 | 314 | 326 |
| OTT | 110 | 010 | 18 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41OTTNick PaulAssists: Tim Stützle, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 1:04OTTJosh NorrisUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 14:37NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:52NYRRyan LindgrenAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:57NYRBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Sammy Blais, Jacob Trouba · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:44OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:55NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:29NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 17:15NYRMorgan Barron: Kneeing2 min
- P2 2:00OTTAlex Formenton: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:14NYRK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 19:41OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:06OTTNick Paul: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 10:06NYRSammy Blais: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:48OTTParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:22OTTTim Stützle: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:22NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:49NYRChris Kreider: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Panarin11:53
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Hunt – Rooney6:46
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Blais – Chytil – Lafrenière6:43
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Barron4:53
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller11:34
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Miller2:50
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:37
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Stützle8:57
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Shaw – Formenton – Kelly4:24
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:23
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Tierney – Formenton – Kelly2:34
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub18:05
xG 0.71–0.12 (85%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Brown – Mete9:46
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Zaitsev10:24
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).