Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 113 | 28 | 431 |
| PHI | 06 | 211 | 012 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:00FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:23PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:53PHICam AtkinsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 19:33FLAOwen TippettAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:53FLAJonathan HuberdeauSHGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:48FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Mason Marchment, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:13FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:08PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min
- P1 16:55PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:01FLAGustav Forsling: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:34PHINate Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:17PHIKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:42FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:44PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:52PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:52FLAAnton Lundell: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:14PHINate Thompson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Vatrano – Luostarinen4:54
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:51
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Marchment – Luostarinen – Lundell2:00
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett7:16
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling12:00
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad10:37
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:06
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom10:01
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – MacEwen6:37
xG 0.77–0.81 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny9:16
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee7:45
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Seeler10:14
xG 1.10–0.16 (87%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen2:00
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:03
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).