Sun, Oct 24, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 419 | 110 | 637 |
| CHI | 111 | 16 | 118 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41DETLucas RaymondAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:35CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Jonathan Toews, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:22DETCarter RowneyAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Mitchell Stephens · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 7:33DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Mitchell Stephens, Filip Zadina · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 9:19DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Deflected, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 12:10CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Seth Jones, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 19:00DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–2
- P3 1:58CHIHenrik BorgstromAssists: Dylan Strome, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 7:00DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Slap, 0.11 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:01CHITyler Johnson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:04CHIDominik Kubalik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:37DETDylan Larkin: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:59DETRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:36CHITyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:06DETMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:20CHIJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:44CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:45DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38DETVladislav Namestnikov: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 14:36CHIDylan Strome: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond6:31
xG 0.99–0.29 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina7:13
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Stephens4:52
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen8:49
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher8:58
xG 0.94–0.20 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom13:17
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Seider11:28
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Johnson – Kubalik8:25
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Hagel – Johnson3:35
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Gaudette – Borgstrom7:45
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Kurashev – Johnson3:20
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy4:55
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones6:25
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Murphy – McCabe6:21
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).