Tue, Oct 26, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 410 | 012 | 17 | 529 |
| NJD | 04 | 19 | 217 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35CGYMilan LucicAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:08CGYAndrew MangiapaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 12:10CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–0
- P1 12:56CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 7:01NJDPavel ZachaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 11:18CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 11:51NJDDawson MercerAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 17:01NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Dawson Mercer, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:48NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:27CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:47CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:52NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:04CGYErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P3 10:23NJDMason Geertsen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:25NJDTy Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:30CGYJuuso Välimäki: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 16:30NJDAndreas Johnsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:30CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Pitlick – Coleman11:46
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Mangiapane – Dube8:50
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan8:14
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk9:26
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:44
xG 1.14–0.39 (75%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Tanev – Kylington11:48
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Välimäki13:23
xG 0.29–0.47 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Mercer2:02
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Vesey – McLeod – Sharangovich3:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vesey – Johnsson – Mercer4:10
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Vesey – Geertsen – Gauthier3:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Subban – Siegenthaler10:08
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Severson – Graves8:43
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).