Wed, Oct 27, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 110 | 117 | 13 | 340 |
| CHI | 211 | 09 | 07 | 02 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44CHIKirby DachPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:48CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Seth Jones · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:14TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 12:31TORDavid KampfAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Ondrej Kase · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 1:58TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:15TORMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:55TORPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:55CHIRyan Carpenter: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:44CHIJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:35TORAuston Matthews: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:56CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:54CHICalvin de Haan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Ritchie4:55
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf7:08
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews12:48
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner9:15
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl13:41
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly15:40
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Dermott – Sandin9:32
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Kurashev – Hardman6:01
xG 0.51–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Carpenter – Hagel7:51
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Kubalik – Dach6:25
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Entwistle – Johnson6:04
xG 0.02–0.18 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones16:11
xG 0.77–0.43 (65%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Murphy – McCabe17:17
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Gustafsson – Mitchell8:01
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).