Thu, Oct 28, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 011 | 16 | 125 |
| TBL | 312 | 18 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:40TBLAlex KillornGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 10:41TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 13:38TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 12:36ARILawson CrouseAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 18:23TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:05TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:05ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57ARIIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:34ARIAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:14ARILawson Crouse: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:14TBLPatrick Maroon: Instigator2 min
- P1 12:14ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:53TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P2 4:57ARIDysin Mayo: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27TBLPatrick Maroon: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:33TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 6:32ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – O'Brien – Fischer6:24
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Jaskin11:27
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Crouse – Keller – Hayton9:12
xG 0.31–0.62 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Ladd – Roussel – Boyd5:29
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Soderstrom11:36
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Mayo – Chychrun2:34
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo9:29
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Colton7:16
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Raddysh – Barré-Boulet8:55
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Killorn – Point – Cirelli7:51
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph9:24
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSustr – Sergachev10:25
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Hedman – Rutta8:07
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:28
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).