Thu, Oct 28, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 09 | 29 | 331 |
| LAK | 17 | 116 | 09 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:23LAKRasmus KupariAssists: Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:41LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Phillip Danault, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:07WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:35WPGPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:37LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P3 1:43LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:29WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:21LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois13:58
xG 0.95–0.60 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen12:02
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers11:12
xG 0.45–1.09 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey18:38
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:44
xG 1.02–0.85 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Stanley6:40
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Kempe – Iafallo10:02
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Moore – Kupari – Kaliyev8:15
xG 0.70–0.31 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Arvidsson13:34
xG 0.75–0.87 (46%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Vilardi – Lizotte9:31
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Bjornfot15:11
xG 1.44–0.69 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Edler – Strand12:38
xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Maatta – Roy14:58
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).