Fri, Oct 29, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 0, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 04 | 06 | 06 | 016 |
| WSH | 014 | 09 | 29 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:02WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 19:39WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:25WSHLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:52ARILawson Crouse: Interference2 min
- P1 13:59ARIDmitrij Jaskin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:22ARIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:46ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:01ARIJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:21ARILiam O'Brien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:42WSHGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Larsson – Jaskin5:16
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Roussel – Fischer2:52
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Jaskin4:38
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – O'Brien3:33
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayo – Chychrun12:47
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Soderstrom2:35
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Soderstrom8:23
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Leason – Lapierre5:56
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway7:22
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Mantha – Sprong – McMichael8:05
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:05
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:06
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk11:40
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).