Sat, Oct 30, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 114 | 114 | 212 | 440 |
| PIT | 19 | 09 | 117 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23PITDanton HeinenAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Juuso Riikola · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 19:23NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:57NJDJimmy VeseySHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 2:02PITBrock McGinnAssists: Teddy Blueger, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 17:00NJDJesper BrattGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 18:17NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:44NJDMichael McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:10PITBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:36NJDTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:32NJDAndreas Johnsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:54NJDP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:35PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:00PITSidney Crosby: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 19:20NJDYegor Sharangovich: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Mercer10:24
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Hischier9:41
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Kuokkanen – Studenic8:36
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Vesey – McLeod – Sharangovich7:17
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Graves16:08
xG 1.06–0.57 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Subban – Siegenthaler10:34
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues11:36
xG 0.68–0.61 (52%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Boyle – Heinen – O'Connor5:17
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese12:07
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen11:51
xG 0.31–0.71 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Riikola3:17
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Pettersson3:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel9:22
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).