Mon, Nov 1, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 16 | 114 | 09 | 229 |
| EDM | 24 | 18 | 211 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Tyson Barrie · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:09SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Yanni Gourde, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:01EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 1:47EDMDuncan KeithGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 18:40SEACarson SoucyAssists: Nathan Bastian, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 2:57EDMKyle TurrisAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 12:22EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31SEAMark Giordano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:19EDMDevin Shore: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21EDMSlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:06EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18SEAMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:18EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31SEAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:15SEAJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Wennberg4:57
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Gourde – Tanev9:41
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Donato – Geekie5:17
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Donskoi – Wennberg6:46
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Soucy9:18
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Giordano – Oleksiak6:06
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Dunn4:18
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi3:38
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:53
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto9:36
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Kassian – Foegele – Ryan9:19
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Koekkoek12:33
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Keith – Ceci14:08
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bouchard13:55
xG 0.72–0.85 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).