Tue, Nov 2, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 05 | 07 | 11 | 322 |
| CGY | 120 | 08 | 111 | 01 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11NSHLuke KuninAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:49CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 18:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:20CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Chris Tanev, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:37NSHMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:09NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:09CGYBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:51NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:55NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:44CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:36NSHLuke Kunin: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:08NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:23NSHLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:46CGYDillon Dube: Interference2 min
- P3 15:29NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dube won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg8:15
xG 0.46–0.35 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino7:36
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen9:15
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:54
xG 0.13–1.28 (9%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning6:27
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro14:50
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning4:14
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:38
xG 1.12–0.26 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman4:09
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan3:23
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:27
xG 1.55–0.59 (72%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov11:47
xG 0.94–0.11 (90%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington14:34
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).