Thu, Nov 4, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Buffalo Sabres 2, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 25 | 010 | 221 |
| SEA | 114 | 116 | 38 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:42SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:27BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:59BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 18:25SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:50SEAJordan EberleGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 8:06SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:43SEAJaden SchwartzENAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Backhand, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:03SEAMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:08BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:37BUFJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:37BUFJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:37SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:40BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:03BUFCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:10SEAMax McCormick: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48BUFJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:48SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00SEAJaden Schwartz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44SEAAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44BUFTage Thompson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:22SEAJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Eakin – Girgensons5:57
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen4:30
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens11:01
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Asplund – Thompson12:26
xG 0.17–0.85 (17%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson9:23
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Hagg9:36
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Butcher – Dahlin15:59
xG 0.26–1.20 (18%)attempts 9–22goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Gourde – Tanev7:16
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wennberg3:38
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Eberle – Donato – Geekie3:54
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – McCormick – Bastian4:30
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Dunn11:46
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Giordano – Oleksiak7:50
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).