Sat, Nov 6, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 06 | 214 | 14 | 433 |
| BUF | 012 | 29 | 110 | 01 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16DETPius SuterAssists: Lucas Raymond, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 11:32BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Asplund · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 12:36BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Will Butcher, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 6:08BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Colin Miller, John Hayden · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 13:24DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 14:54DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Pius Suter, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:45DETMoritz SeiderGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:11DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:04DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:01BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Suter – Raymond14:14
xG 1.81–0.34 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 3–1
- Fabbri – Veleno – Zadina10:22
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Erne – Smith – Rasmussen7:27
xG 0.21–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Stephens9:55
xG 0.04–0.57 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Hronek20:33
xG 1.19–0.90 (57%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Seider16:48
xG 0.82–0.70 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Staal – Oesterle13:58
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Eakin – Girgensons12:55
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Skinner – Asplund – Thompson12:23
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen10:16
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens11:57
xG 0.38–1.67 (19%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg16:34
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Butcher – Dahlin16:24
xG 0.50–0.79 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson18:44
xG 0.65–1.24 (34%)attempts 14–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).