Wed, Nov 10, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 311 | 08 | 530 |
| ARI | 18 | 05 | 113 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:00MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jon Merrill, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:10ARIAndrew LaddAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 2:45MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 3:21MINDmitry KulikovAssists: Rem Pitlick, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 18:51MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Fiala · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 7:04ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Clayton Keller, Travis Boyd · Snap, 0.17 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:00ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40MINJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:02MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P3 2:58MINNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek9:08
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Greenway – Pitlick8:24
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov12:52
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Hartman – Duhaime – Sturm9:27
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon14:43
xG 0.63–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Merrill14:46
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:19
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Boyd – Keller4:31
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Crouse12:15
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Ladd – Keller – Hayton4:43
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Jaskin – Hayton2:16
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDineen – Lyubushkin14:26
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
- Stralman – Chychrun16:07
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo13:16
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).