Thu, Nov 11, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 010 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 238 |
| PIT | 113 | 16 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:37PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Kris Letang, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:55FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 17:53PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Jason Zucker, John Marino · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 2:30FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 5. PIT Bryan Rust scored
- 6. FLA Patric Hornqvist stopped
- 7. PIT Jeff Carter scored
- 8. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:05PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:47FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:37PITJeff Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:35FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:06FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:29PITJake Guentzel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen6:02
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett3:57
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Vatrano – Luostarinen2:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Lundell4:24
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:31
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Montour – Carlsson7:05
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling15:06
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Rust – Guentzel12:00
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Zucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues9:06
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen10:31
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Boyle – Aston-Reese – O'Connor7:29
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Marino3:45
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Letang – Matheson9:42
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Ruhwedel2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).