Thu, Nov 11, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 28 | 19 | 11 | 427 |
| STL | 212 | 012 | 110 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23STLJordan KyrouAssists: Tyler Bozak, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:47STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:17NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Luke Kunin, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:43NSHLuke KuninAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:01NSHYakov TreninAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 8:13STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:01NSHMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:31STLDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:21NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Kunin15:41
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- McCarron – Novak – Tolvanen4:15
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jeannot – Tolvanen4:27
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier10:13
xG 0.08–0.36 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro20:08
xG 1.34–0.92 (59%)attempts 21–21goals 1–0
- Josi – Myers2:38
xG 0.38–0.10 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Myers12:46
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Buchnevich – Kyrou12:10
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev6:26
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Joshua – Kostin8:16
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad7:56
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Rosen18:09
xG 1.10–0.69 (61%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Faulk – Parayko2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman8:59
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).