Thu, Nov 11, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 08 | 09 | 127 |
| WPG | 110 | 213 | 111 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28SJSAndrew CoglianoAssists: Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:38WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Evgeny Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:11WPGNate SchmidtGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:16WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:27WPGPierre-Luc DuboisENAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:38SJSJasper Weatherby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:24SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:24WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:24SJSLogan Couture: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:02SJSRyan Merkley: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02WPGDominic Toninato: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:16SJSNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Merkley – Weatherby7:17
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Pederson – Gadjovich – Leonard3:47
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov11:23
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Bonino – Couture – Dahlen8:48
xG 0.39–1.09 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Merkley7:26
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Merkley – Hatakka5:40
xG 0.37–0.40 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro17:37
xG 0.87–0.97 (47%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois11:27
xG 1.27–0.59 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Lowry – Copp – Harkins4:24
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Nash – Toninato – Vesalainen7:07
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers5:17
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk16:14
xG 1.30–0.88 (60%)attempts 23–17goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Morrissey16:34
xG 1.24–0.90 (58%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley11:49
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).