Fri, Nov 12, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 07 | 215 | 228 |
| CAR | 013 | 115 | 012 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:14CARSteven LorentzAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 4:06PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 10:20PHIZack MacEwenGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Patrick Brown · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:34CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:01PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:52CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 18:08CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08CARVincent Trocheck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:00PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:12PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:55PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P3 14:07CARVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Atkinson – Lindblom7:34
xG 0.77–0.50 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier3:48
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Brown – MacEwen8:20
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Farabee3:55
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim14:28
xG 1.08–0.84 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov13:45
xG 0.84–0.84 (50%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Yandle – Seeler9:08
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Lorentz9:21
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:46
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi10:01
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Leivo – Martinook5:25
xG 0.07–0.39 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear11:46
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Cole – Smith10:14
xG 0.22–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Skjei – DeAngelo11:59
xG 0.77–1.13 (41%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).