Fri, Nov 12, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 28 | 110 | 428 |
| CBJ | 110 | 212 | 07 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33CBJSean KuralyAssists: Alexandre Texier, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 10:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 0:24WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 7:23WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 8:11CBJSean KuralyAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 8:33CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 18:38WSHConor ShearyGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:35WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45CBJGavin Bayreuther: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:20WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Sheary – Sprong – McMichael8:27
xG 0.41–0.45 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway2:03
xG 0.04–0.13 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby11:10
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson15:36
xG 0.40–0.76 (35%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Orlov2:44
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen14:38
xG 0.68–0.70 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Texier – Robinson14:10
xG 1.05–0.29 (79%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand13:14
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Voracek – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:03
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Hofmann – Roslovic – Stenlund9:41
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlsson – Peeke11:11
xG 0.89–0.26 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Bayreuther16:33
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Werenski – Bean17:15
xG 0.82–0.84 (49%)attempts 15–21goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).