Sun, Nov 14, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 09 | 08 | 125 |
| WSH | 29 | 214 | 29 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25WSHMartin FehérvárySHAssists: Tom Wilson, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:05WSHGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:11WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Lars Eller, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 18:36WSHConor ShearyAssists: Connor McMichael, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 4:43WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 9:35WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:08WSHDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P1 5:28PITKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:12WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26PITJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:15PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen12:48
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:51
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese11:23
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Heinen – Rodrigues9:31
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Letang – Matheson2:52
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino13:37
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ruhwedel13:48
xG 0.66–0.82 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby10:34
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:21
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Leason – Protas8:40
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Sheary – Sprong – McMichael7:11
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry9:29
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk12:34
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:48
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).