Tue, Nov 16, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 08 | 08 | 024 |
| TOR | 113 | 012 | 29 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 16:04TORDavid KampfAssists: Ondrej Kase, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 19:37TORMitch MarnerENAssists: David Kampf, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.68 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:46NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10NSHPhilip Tomasino: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:46TORNick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:45TORNick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:18NSHLuke Kunin: Interference2 min
- P3 5:32NSHMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:32TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:31NSHPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Novak – Tolvanen6:09
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jeannot – Tomasino8:24
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier6:12
xG 0.22–0.58 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin12:43
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning13:18
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Josi – Myers6:53
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Myers7:10
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kase – Kampf7:00
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Marner – Matthews8:42
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:55
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Bunting5:49
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:54
xG 1.17–0.39 (75%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Dermott – Sandin12:04
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:49
xG 0.99–0.79 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).