Mon, Dec 6, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 29 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 323 |
| NJD | 17 | 17 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 7:15OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:20NJDNathan BastianAssists: P.K. Subban, Ty Smith · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:42OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 2. NJD Tomas Tatar scored
- 3. OTT Josh Norris scored
- 4. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 5. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 6. NJD Andreas Johnsson stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:56NJDRyan Graves: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:06OTTZachary Sanford: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:06NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:29OTTTyler Ennis: Charging2 min
- P3 8:29NJDRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk14:17
xG 1.00–0.62 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Brown – Paul – Stützle12:43
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton10:19
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell9:26
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev20:53
xG 1.10–0.36 (75%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Holden – Thomson2:26
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Mete – Thomson8:26
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Vesey – Mercer11:36
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Sharangovich – Hughes11:40
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Kuokkanen10:23
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier10:22
xG 0.18–0.75 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler16:39
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Subban – Smith14:00
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Graves15:35
xG 0.64–0.99 (39%)attempts 20–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).