Tue, Nov 16, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 19 | 13 | 323 |
| STL | 114 | 19 | 013 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37ARIKyle CapobiancoPPAssists: Lawson Crouse, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:57STLJordan KyrouAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:35ARIBarrett HaytonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:58STLTorey KrugAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 13:52ARIBarrett HaytonPPGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:10ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:38STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:05ARIAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:08ARIDysin Mayo: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:46STLKlim Kostin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:46ARIClayton Keller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:29STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Beagle – Roussel9:23
xG 0.33–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fasching – Jenik4:50
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyd – Crouse – Keller11:50
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Kessel – Galchenyuk – Hayton12:13
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Dineen12:07
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin15:43
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo16:46
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Bozak – Saad10:19
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Buchnevich – Kyrou9:57
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Sundqvist – Kostin7:15
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas10:25
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:28
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Scandella – Parayko12:53
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich4:24
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).