Thu, Nov 18, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 5, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 49 | 010 | 533 |
| BUF | 08 | 08 | 011 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:42CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 13:58CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 14:59CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 15:35CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:37CGYBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:54BUFDrake Caggiula: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:01BUFAnders Bjork: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:24CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:33
xG 0.98–0.30 (77%)attempts 26–6goals 2–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic11:21
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube10:43
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:13
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov15:38
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington16:53
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:21
xG 0.53–0.44 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Asplund – Thompson9:46
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen8:21
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons11:06
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens11:32
xG 0.19–0.47 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Hagg12:47
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Hagg2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Dahlin14:20
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).