Thu, Apr 7, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 018 | 211 | 334 |
| OTT | 06 | 110 | 113 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 15:32OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 4:36OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 7:48NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Roman Josi, Dante Fabbro · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:38NSHRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:13OTTConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:45NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:45OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16NSHLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:50NSHMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:33NSHMattias Ekholm: Kneeing2 min
- P2 2:57OTTArtem Zub: Holding2 min
- P2 8:04NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31OTTCole Reinhardt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:14OTTBrady Tkachuk: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Tolvanen9:57
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Cousins – Kunin – Luff5:40
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tomasino9:58
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:28
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Lauzon10:58
xG 0.85–0.21 (81%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier14:10
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro14:00
xG 0.70–0.86 (45%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Norris – Tkachuk10:53
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Reinhardt6:01
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gaudette – Formenton6:59
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Brown – White – Kelly8:36
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Hamonic13:18
xG 0.75–0.65 (54%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Holden – Zaitsev11:43
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Brannstrom – Zub14:43
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).