Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 213 | 13 | 03 | 2 | 432 |
| PHI | 25 | 09 | 112 | 04 | 0 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:21PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 1:51TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:52TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 18:04TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 19:51PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 2. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:14PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 1:29PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05PHIDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:47TBLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:41TBLPatrick Maroon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli14:03
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton8:37
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:40
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph9:13
xG 0.26–0.92 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Bogosian12:33
xG 0.86–0.14 (86%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:21
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote8:11
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee11:40
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Brassard – Atkinson9:42
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Willman – MacEwen7:45
xG 0.05–0.25 (17%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny11:53
xG 0.14–0.88 (14%)attempts 5–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov14:11
xG 0.85–0.68 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 0–2
- Braun – Sanheim2:53
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:59
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).