Fri, Nov 19, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 7, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 414 | 15 | 730 |
| SEA | 07 | 06 | 315 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04COLAndre BurakovskyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 6:39COLValeri NichushkinSHAssists: Tyson Jost, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:01COLCale MakarAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 5:33COLAndre BurakovskyPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 12:48COLCale MakarAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–0
- P2 17:17COLErik JohnsonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–0
- P3 4:47COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Tyson Jost, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.20 xG7–0
- P3 5:57SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.28 xG7–1
- P3 8:30SEABrandon TanevPPAssists: Carson Soucy, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.28 xG7–2
- P3 15:12SEAColin BlackwellAssists: Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.11 xG7–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:13SEARyan Donato: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:12COLSamuel Girard: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:47SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:26SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55SEAMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 17:55SEAMark Giordano: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:30COLJayson Megna: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31COLLogan O'Connor: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31SEAJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:31COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook9:43
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor8:32
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – Sherwood2:38
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Helm – Megna – Sherwood7:10
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard2:18
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:26
xG 0.64–0.47 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Girard – Makar3:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Wennberg9:26
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Schwartz – Gourde5:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Johansson – Wennberg2:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Blackwell – McCann2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Lauzon11:54
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Giordano – Soucy11:40
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).