Sat, Nov 20, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 08 | 014 | 231 |
| TOR | 07 | 010 | 09 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:15PITJeff CarterAssists: Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:52TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:56PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:21PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:47PITJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:58PITZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Rodrigues – Simon6:22
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:40
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen11:55
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese10:18
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin19:09
xG 1.02–0.60 (63%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel9:58
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Pettersson2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Bunting8:25
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Marner – Matthews11:57
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:24
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf10:28
xG 0.28–0.78 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl15:01
xG 0.83–0.60 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly17:55
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin11:50
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).