Sun, Nov 21, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 113 | 26 | 02 | 0 | 432 |
| TBL | 210 | 110 | 12 | 02 | 1 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:14TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Corey Perry, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 14:40MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:56MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Jordie Benn, Rem Pitlick · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:07TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Cal Foote, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 9:19TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 17:12MINKevin FialaAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:21MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. TBL Ross Colton stopped
- 4. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 5. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 6. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:12MINAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:54TBLCorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:58TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38TBLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:38MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:39TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:01MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:57MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
- OT 3:23TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- OT 4:52MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Fiala3:49
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Rask – Greenway – Kaprizov2:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:36
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Rask – Gaudreau – Kaprizov5:09
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:17
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Benn – Kulikov10:31
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Merrill13:50
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli12:14
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:40
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton7:41
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Barré-Boulet7:57
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:20
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote6:05
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Sergachev – Rutta2:00
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).