Sun, Nov 21, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 310 | 04 | 422 |
| NYR | 18 | 315 | 113 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53BUFRasmus AsplundPPAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 19:37NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:26BUFVinnie HinostrozaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 8:03NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 12:07NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 12:57BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 13:12BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Victor Olofsson, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P2 13:29NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 19:59NYRRyan LindgrenGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:33NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:11NYRKaapo Kakko: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11BUFJacob Bryson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:53NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens9:46
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Asplund11:37
xG 0.32–0.66 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:54
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork11:26
xG 0.12–1.11 (10%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butcher – Hagg9:24
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hagg – Dahlin2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin2:54
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière11:46
xG 1.50–0.31 (83%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko13:48
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney5:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Hunt4:28
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren20:13
xG 1.46–0.24 (86%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller17:33
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Tinordi11:36
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).