Sun, Nov 21, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Washington Capitals 2, Seattle Kraken 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 05 | 123 | 239 |
| SEA | 114 | 39 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:58SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Morgan Geekie · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:17SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Carson Soucy, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 7:00SEAAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:51SEACalle JarnkrokAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 3:09WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:31SEAYanni GourdeENAssists: Brandon Tanev, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:32WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55SEAJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 1:39SEAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:46SEAYanni Gourde: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:33SEAJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Leason9:47
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby – McMichael2:40
xG 0.26–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:13
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 2–2
- Hathaway – Sprong – Protas6:10
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:02
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Schultz – Cholowski4:50
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk5:04
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Johansson – Wennberg12:35
xG 0.33–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Schwartz – Gourde11:19
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Blackwell – Donato – Geekie5:07
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – McCann – Tanev8:34
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lauzon17:50
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Giordano – Oleksiak15:26
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Soucy – Dunn11:43
xG 0.31–0.76 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).