Mon, Nov 22, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Ottawa Senators 5, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 14 | 210 | 521 |
| COL | 210 | 119 | 411 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:53OTTZachary SanfordPPAssists: Lassi Thomson, Michael Del Zotto · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 13:11COLCale MakarAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:14OTTArtem ZubAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 13:44COLDevon ToewsAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 16:33OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 1:03OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 2:45COLCale MakarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 5:00OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 9:08COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–5
- P3 18:27COLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Logan O'Connor, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–6
- P3 19:48COLNazem KadriENAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:43OTTAlex Formenton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:57COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:49OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:52COLValeri Nichushkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:14OTTTyler Ennis: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14OTTTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:14COLTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Shaw
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Sanford – Norris – Tkachuk2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Paul9:15
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – Gambrell2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell2:38
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Thomson7:41
xG 0.05–0.12 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Thomson4:01
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 1–2
- Mete – Thomson3:45
xG 0.12–0.27 (32%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor7:49
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook6:31
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin8:54
xG 0.49–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Helm – Burakovsky – Jost2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar9:57
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Toews – Girard4:36
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Makar2:40
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).