Wed, Nov 24, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 422 | 07 | 118 | 547 |
| BUF | 18 | 014 | 03 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:29BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:20BOSCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 16:59BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 19:00BOSMike ReillyAssists: Nick Foligno, Jakub Zboril · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 15:26BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: Craig Smith, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:25BOSJakub Zboril: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:30BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:42BOSNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:42BUFColin Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22BOSDerek Forbort: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 13:46BUFZemgus Girgensons: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 13:46BUFZemgus Girgensons: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:55
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall10:06
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Smith – Nosek – DeBrusk8:29
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Haula – DeBrusk2:36
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zboril14:48
xG 1.08–0.30 (78%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy14:56
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Forbort – Carlo15:53
xG 0.35–0.70 (34%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Hayden – Ruotsalainen7:16
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Asplund – Cozens10:41
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson12:43
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Bjork10:30
xG 0.10–0.57 (14%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Hagg10:24
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Bryson13:16
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Dahlin17:25
xG 0.09–1.27 (6%)attempts 5–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).