Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 011 | 115 | 237 |
| DET | 111 | 13 | 29 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:48DETLucas RaymondAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:45DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 1:11STLDavid PerronAssists: Scott Perunovich, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:38DETAdam ErneGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:45DETRobby FabbriENAssists: Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:55DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:52DETJordan Oesterle: Interference2 min
- P3 12:45DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas14:34
xG 1.04–0.64 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou7:14
xG 0.48–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev8:49
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou3:02
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Perunovich6:28
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug16:09
xG 0.82–0.53 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Scandella – Mikkola2:56
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Smith – Veleno3:59
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina4:56
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond16:14
xG 0.56–0.73 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Smith – Suter2:08
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRenouf – Lindstrom10:54
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Leddy – Seider2:51
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek17:30
xG 1.36–1.33 (50%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).