Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 114 | 316 | 544 |
| ARI | 113 | 06 | 28 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45ARIClayton KellerAssists: Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:58EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:53EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zack Kassian, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:45EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 13:08EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 13:43ARITravis BoydAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 15:06ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:32EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:15EDMPhilip Broberg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:27ARIKyle Capobianco: Holding2 min
- P1 10:58EDMZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:09ARIAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59ARITravis Boyd: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:01ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid14:57
xG 1.42–0.41 (78%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto12:57
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Turris – Sceviour – Benson8:08
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod8:21
xG 0.14–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Broberg19:19
xG 1.12–0.16 (87%)attempts 24–6goals 1–1
- Russell – Barrie16:46
xG 1.19–0.31 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Bouchard9:52
xG 0.36–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Dzingel – Galchenyuk – Crouse9:59
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fasching – Jenik3:24
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Boyd – Keller14:23
xG 0.48–1.01 (32%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Hayton10:30
xG 0.12–1.09 (10%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Gostisbehere2:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Chychrun3:32
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Capobianco10:15
xG 0.08–0.39 (16%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).