Fri, Nov 26, 2021·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 216 | 06 | 02 | 01 | 225 |
| CHI | 010 | 16 | 110 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:39STLIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 0:34CHIJujhar KhairaAssists: Mike Hardman, Reese Johnson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 14:56CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Seth Jones, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:27CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:03STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:54CHIKirby Dach: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:28STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:28CHIJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:25STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:37STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou10:40
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad2:53
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bozak – O'Reilly – Saad3:25
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Bozak – Saad – Sundqvist2:17
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Perunovich5:34
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich2:27
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola9:29
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – DeBrincat – Dach13:52
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Khaira – Johnson – Hardman5:56
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Khaira – Borgstrom – Kurashev4:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Borgstrom – Kurashev3:23
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson4:21
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- McCabe – Gustafsson3:10
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – McCabe12:30
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).