Fri, Nov 26, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 0, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 014 | 08 | 034 |
| ANA | 114 | 27 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43ANAIsac LundeströmGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 10:28ANADerek GrantAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 19:17ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Trevor Zegras · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 9:05ANARickard RakellAssists: Trevor Zegras, Sonny Milano · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:38ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:55ANANicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:08OTTTyler Ennis: Interference2 min
- P2 5:35ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:24ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:56ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:35OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:21OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P3 13:07ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Stützle12:03
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton4:03
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Formenton2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly3:50
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zub4:57
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Thomson6:04
xG 0.11–0.20 (37%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Mete – Zaitsev12:26
xG 0.65–0.80 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Carrick7:47
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras9:47
xG 0.55–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström8:41
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Terry11:14
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale14:08
xG 0.99–0.36 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit10:32
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:22
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).