Sat, Nov 27, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 17 | 28 | 428 |
| CGY | 214 | 06 | 016 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:42CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 16:26WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:50WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 15:09WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:00WPGAndrew CoppENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:35WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45CGYTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P1 17:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00WPGBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:32CGYMilan Lucic: Boarding5 min
- P2 15:32CGYMilan Lucic: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:27WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P3 8:14WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Stastny – Lowry – Ehlers7:50
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen4:34
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:27
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Copp – Svechnikov – Dubois9:19
xG 0.08–0.53 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley11:07
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:48
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Morrissey14:45
xG 0.30–1.20 (20%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:00
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:11
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube7:03
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic5:28
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:10
xG 0.99–0.38 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:26
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Tanev – Kylington13:39
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).