Sat, Nov 27, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 110 | 05 | 329 |
| ARI | 19 | 111 | 07 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 3:54ARIAntoine RousselAssists: Loui Eriksson, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 18:36DALJacob PetersonAssists: Radek Faksa, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 4:24ARITravis BoydAssists: Kyle Capobianco, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 8:57DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:32DALAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:35ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Glendening – Kiviranta8:18
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:56
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Benn – Raffl – Gurianov9:24
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Peterson7:35
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen21:57
xG 1.32–0.40 (77%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Sekera – Hakanpää8:29
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Crouse – Hayton8:41
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Dzingel8:40
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Kessel – Boyd – Keller13:58
xG 0.28–0.71 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Galchenyuk – O'Brien – Fasching7:50
xG 0.14–0.68 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Capobianco13:19
xG 0.84–0.71 (54%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun4:30
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo15:11
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).