Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 111 | 110 | 228 |
| NYR | 012 | 110 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 13:38NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 17:16NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:50NYRBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:26NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P2 11:53NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47NYRRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:14NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:37NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodzinski won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:07
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:51
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:36
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau7:59
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson10:57
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Mayfield2:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Mayfield6:09
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière10:15
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Hunt – Chytil7:13
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Brodzinski6:03
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Panarin11:01
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:39
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Schneider12:47
xG 0.48–0.45 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:35
xG 0.76–1.07 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).