Sun, Nov 28, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 110 | 08 | 230 |
| MIN | 213 | 016 | 28 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03MINNick BjugstadAssists: Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:51TBLCorey PerryAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:28MINVictor RaskAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:24TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 9:15MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Rem Pitlick · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:43MINMarcus FolignoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:22MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:53TBLZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53TBLZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:04TBLZach Bogosian: Delaying game2 min
- P2 19:38MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:33MINBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli4:02
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–2
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:04
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton9:18
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Barré-Boulet7:31
xG 0.03–0.34 (8%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote11:04
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Hedman – Rutta10:49
xG 0.28–0.77 (27%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
- McDonagh – Bogosian16:30
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Gaudreau – Fiala9:16
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:39
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hartman – Kaprizov – Pitlick11:17
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm8:35
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill12:09
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Benn – Kulikov14:52
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:13
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).