Wed, Dec 1, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 210 | 314 | 635 |
| OTT | 111 | 05 | 15 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38VANTanner PearsonAssists: Conor Garland, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:52OTTAdam GaudettePPAssists: Connor Brown, Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 2:38VANTyler MotteAssists: Conor Garland, Kyle Burroughs · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 19:31VANLuke SchennGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 4:02VANBo HorvatAssists: Quinn Hughes, Thatcher Demko · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 7:38VANAlex ChiassonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–1
- P3 13:42OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Victor Mete, Josh Norris · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 17:10VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:22OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 11:34VANAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:14VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30VANTanner Pearson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:05OTTNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P2 18:03VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:26OTTConnor Brown: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:26VANNils Hoglander: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:31OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:19OTTZachary Sanford: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:10OTTVictor Mete: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Garland8:27
xG 0.86–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Dowling – Pettersson – Hoglander3:27
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander2:44
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Podkolzin7:03
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hughes11:49
xG 1.03–0.39 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Poolman10:22
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson14:48
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Paul – Sanford2:37
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell3:55
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk13:48
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle4:25
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Thomson11:01
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev2:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Mete – Zaitsev10:45
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).