Wed, Dec 1, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 29 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 324 |
| DET | 06 | 213 | 17 | 00 | 2 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:46DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 10:44SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 16:04SEARyan DonatoAssists: Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 18:18DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:30DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:16SEARyan DonatoAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Robby Fabbri stopped
- 2. SEA Ryan Donato stopped
- 3. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 4. SEA Jared McCann stopped
- 5. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 6. SEA Joonas Donskoi scored
- 7. DET Adam Erne scored
- 8. SEA Alexander Wennberg stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:49SEAMason Appleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:29SEAMorgan Geekie: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:51DETNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P1 18:55DETVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:25SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Tanev – Geekie10:26
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Gourde – Donato8:24
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Johansson – Wennberg – Appleton13:27
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Blackwell – Lind3:46
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Soucy16:56
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fleury – Lauzon9:31
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn19:33
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen12:04
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Suter – Zadina4:16
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Criscuolo8:27
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Fabbri – Raymond14:12
xG 0.17–0.65 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Lindstrom12:28
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek19:24
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Seider16:35
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).