Thu, Dec 2, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 4, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 37 | 16 | 018 | 431 |
| FLA | 013 | 321 | 411 | 745 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 7:41BUFDylan CozensAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 14:25BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 9:57FLALucas CarlssonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:16BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 12:32FLASam ReinhartAssists: Lucas Carlsson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 15:40FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 1:07FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 8:05FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 18:37FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–6
- P3 19:55FLAAnton LundellENAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:09BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:13BUFMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54FLAPatric Hornqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:54BUFKyle Okposo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:53BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 16:15FLAEetu Luostarinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:34
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Okposo – Murray – Cozens9:13
xG 0.23–0.43 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:14
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Eakin – Jankowski – Hinostroza7:46
xG 0.00–0.78 (0%)attempts 0–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Bryson12:13
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Hagg14:05
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Dahlin15:23
xG 0.33–1.13 (23%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett6:08
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 3–1
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:20
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Mamin – Lundell3:39
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Verhaeghe – Bennett5:29
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad14:46
xG 1.11–0.50 (69%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Carlsson3:44
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Montour – Carlsson8:04
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).