Fri, Dec 3, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 7, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 414 | 19 | 732 |
| ARI | 111 | 09 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:51ARITravis BoydAssists: Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:53VGKMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:17VGKChandler StephensonSHAssists: Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 8:12VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 12:47VGKMichael AmadioAssists: William Carrier, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 15:08VGKEvgenii DadonovAssists: Mattias Janmark, Dylan Coghlan · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–1
- P3 17:54VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:29ARIBarrett Hayton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26ARIChristian Fischer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:51VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:04VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:58ARILiam O'Brien: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:58VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:27ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:27VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55VGKNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyd won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Brooks9:35
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:03
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Smith – Marchessault – Roy10:04
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Janmark – Kolesar10:34
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud12:28
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague13:56
xG 0.63–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Coghlan – Hague3:45
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Crouse – Hayton8:07
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Galchenyuk – O'Brien8:23
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Boyd – Keller8:50
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 1–3
- Eriksson – Roussel – Dzingel9:52
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo12:11
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Mayo2:01
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mayo – Chychrun2:49
xG 0.01–0.06 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).