Fri, Dec 3, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 3, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 15 | 114 | 332 |
| SEA | 214 | 210 | 010 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Ryan Donato · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:41EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 10:38SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Jared McCann, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:12EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 13:06SEAColin BlackwellAssists: Kole Lind, Riley Sheahan · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 15:53SEAAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 11:44EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:11SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:24SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:02EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:04EDMKailer Yamamoto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:14SEAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40EDMKailer Yamamoto: Interference2 min
- P3 14:40EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:29SEAAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:13
xG 0.50–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi7:39
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Perlini – Ryan4:36
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kassian – Foegele – McLeod5:56
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Bouchard2:35
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Bouchard9:47
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Niemelainen – Broberg6:24
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Blackwell – Lind5:09
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Gourde – Donato9:44
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- McCann – Tanev – Geekie6:47
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Wennberg – Appleton11:34
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn16:00
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 13–19goals 1–2
- Oleksiak – Soucy11:27
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Fleury – Lauzon13:35
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).