Sat, Dec 4, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 17 | 08 | 14 | 325 |
| BOS | 012 | 116 | 110 | 01 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:13TBLTaylor RaddyshSHAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 3:36TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 16:30BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Erik Haula, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 4:44BOSCurtis LazarAssists: Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:31TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:32BOSNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:19TBLZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:25BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Fortier6:55
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton7:47
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat5:49
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Barré-Boulet – Fortier2:40
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev2:42
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman4:58
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev11:50
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Haula – Coyle13:02
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Frederic – Kuhlman9:02
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Hall – Pastrnak13:34
xG 1.13–0.65 (64%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- Lazar – Nosek – DeBrusk8:44
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Carlo3:42
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Carlo – Ahcan2:50
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Ahcan8:24
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).