Sun, Dec 5, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 39 | 29 | 727 |
| PHI | 014 | 010 | 115 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 9:24TBLCorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 2:56TBLTaylor RaddyshAssists: Victor Hedman, Ross Colton · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 6:47TBLBoris KatchoukAssists: Ross Colton, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–0
- P2 8:34TBLMathieu JosephSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
- P3 5:29TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Corey Perry, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.22 xG6–0
- P3 7:04PHICam AtkinsonPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–1
- P3 14:15TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Ross Colton · Tip-in, 0.22 xG7–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 7:12TBLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 9:55PHIOskar Lindblom: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:31TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:38PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:38PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30PHINick Seeler: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Fortier7:37
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph11:22
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:56
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton8:39
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:40
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:10
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian14:16
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Frost6:47
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Couturier – Frost4:31
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Lindblom – Bunnaman9:37
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Hayes – Konecny3:38
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim10:15
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov2:13
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim3:56
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).