Mon, Dec 6, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 313 | 010 | 01 | 2 | 334 |
| WSH | 111 | 210 | 08 | 00 | 3 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34WSHTom WilsonAssists: Justin Schultz, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:09ANAJosh MansonAssists: Sonny Milano, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 3:58WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Lars Eller, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:35ANASonny MilanoAssists: Trevor Zegras, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 15:29ANAVinni LettieriAssists: Cam Fowler, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 19:37WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. ANA Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. WSH Daniel Sprong scored
- 7. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 8. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 9. ANA Sonny Milano stopped
- 10. WSH John Carlson scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:14WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:07ANASimon Benoit: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:17ANASimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Milano – Zegras17:19
xG 1.29–0.60 (68%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson5:24
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Steel – Lettieri9:42
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström14:04
xG 0.16–1.08 (13%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale16:22
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm2:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:41
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Sprong – McMichael5:31
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:09
xG 1.06–0.75 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Eller2:21
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Leason – Protas7:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry18:06
xG 1.04–0.68 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Schultz – Irwin13:22
xG 1.12–0.80 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Orlov – Jensen20:35
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).